Shankar Raghuraman of TOI has done the calculations to show the probabilities of each team qualifying after Wednesday’s game, assuming that in any given match the chances of winning or losing are 50-50.
The analysis also ignores net run rates, since, with three to four games left for each team, current NRRs could change significantly.
Here are all the playoff possibilities for all 8 teams as things stand now, with 13 league stage matches left to play:
1) CSK remain assured of finishing among the top three on points and their chances of ending up in one of the top two slots is now 96%
2) DC stay next best placed and like CSK know they will be among the top three on points. Their chances of making the top two has slipped a little after RCB’s win on Wednesday, but is high enough at 86%
3) RCB have made almost certain of occupying one of the top four slots on points, improving their chances to 98%, and they now have a 46% chance of grabbing or tying one of the top two spots
4) With RR losing, KKR’s chances of getting to one of the top four slots on points rose slightly to 57%. But it cannot top and its chances of getting to the No.2 spot dropped to 0.8%
5) MI stands fifth at the moment and like KKR has a 57% chance of finishing in one of the top four on points. It cannot top, and its chances of getting to the top two have gone down to 1.2%
6) RR’s loss has slightly increased sixth placed PBKS’s chances of getting to the top four on points, which are now at 19% though it cannot get into the top two.
7) RR is level with PBKS on points, but its chances of grabbing one of the top four slots or tying for fourth are just a little higher at 22%. It no longer can get to the top two
8) SRH can at best tie for fourth spot and the chances of even that are a mere 2.2%
9) While CSK, DC and RCB are the only teams that can top, there still remain as many as 384 combinations of match outcomes which can result in a three-way tie between them at the top with 18 or 20 points. That’s a 4.7% chance. Of those scenarios, 23 can have three other teams – KKR, MI and RR tied for fourth place on 12 or 14 points with only one of them qualifying.
What were the playoff possibilities at the end of September 28? Find out HERE.
What were the playoff possibilities at the end of September 27? Find out HERE.
What were the playoff possibilities at the end of September 26? Find out HERE.
What were the playoff possibilities at the end of September 25? Find out HERE.